Factors that determine the behaviour of stock market prices

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Emergence is central in theories of integrative levels and of complex systems. For instance, the phenomenon of life as studied in biology is an emergent property of chemistryand psychological phenomena emerge from the neurobiological phenomena of living things. In philosophy, theories that emphasize emergent properties have been called emergentism. Almost all accounts of emergentism include a form of epistemic or ontological irreducibility to the lower levels.

In philosophy, emergence is often understood to be a claim about the etiology of a system's properties. An emergent property of a system, in this context, is one that is not a property of any component of that system, but is still a feature of the system as a whole. Nicolai Hartmannone of the first modern philosophers to write on emergence, termed this categorial novum new category.

This idea of emergence has been around since at least the time of Aristotle. The term "emergent" was coined by philosopher G. Leweswho wrote:. Every resultant is either a sum or a difference of the co-operant forces; their sum, when their directions are the same — their difference, when their directions are contrary.

Further, every resultant is clearly traceable in its components, because these are homogeneous and commensurable. It is otherwise with emergents, when, instead of adding measurable motion to measurable motion, or things of one kind to other individuals of their kind, there is a co-operation of things of unlike kinds.

The emergent is unlike its components insofar as these are incommensurable, and it cannot be reduced to their sum or their difference.

Economist Jeffrey Goldstein provided a current definition of emergence in the journal Emergence. Goldstein's definition can be further elaborated to describe the qualities of this definition in more detail:. The common characteristics are: Systems scientist Peter Corning also says that living systems cannot be reduced to underlying laws of physics:.

Emergence - Wikipedia

They serve merely to describe regularities and consistent relationships in nature. These patterns may be very illuminating and important, but the underlying causal agencies must be separately specified though often they are not. But that aside, the game of chess illustrates Indeed, you cannot even reliably predict the next move in a chess game. It also includes the players and their unfolding, moment-by-moment decisions among a very large number of available options at each choice point.

The game of chess is inescapably historical, even though it is also constrained and shaped by a set of rules, not to mention the laws of physics. Moreover, and this is a key point, the game of chess is also shaped by teleonomiccyberneticfeedback-driven influences. Usage of the notion "emergence" may generally be subdivided into two perspectives, that of "weak emergence" and "strong emergence". In terms of physical systems, weak emergence is a type of emergence in which the emergent property is amenable to computer simulation.

This is opposed to the older notion of strong emergence, in which the emergent property cannot be simulated by a computer. Some common points between the two notions are that emergence concerns new properties produced as the system grows, which is to say ones which are not shared with its components or prior states. Also, it is assumed that the properties are supervenient rather than metaphysically primitive Bedau Weak emergence describes new properties arising in systems as a result of the interactions at an elemental level.

However, it is stipulated that the properties can be determined by observing or simulating the system, and not by any process of a priori analysis. Bedau notes that weak emergence is not a universal metaphysical solvent, as weak emergence leads to the conclusion that matter itself contains elements of awareness to it.

However, Bedau concludes that adopting this view would provide a precise notion that emergence is involved in consciousness, and second, the notion of weak emergence is metaphysically benign.

Strong emergence describes the direct causal action of a high-level system upon its components; qualities produced this way are irreducible to the system's constituent parts Laughlin The whole is other than the sum of its parts. An example from physics of such emergence is water, being seemingly unpredictable even after an exhaustive study of the properties of its constituent atoms of hydrogen and oxygen. However, "the debate about whether or not the whole can be predicted from the properties of the parts misses the point.

Wholes produce unique combined effects, but many of these effects may be co-determined by the context and the interactions between the whole and its environment s " Corning In accordance with his Synergism Hypothesis, Corning Corning also stated, "It is the synergistic effects produced by wholes that are the very cause of the evolution of complexity in nature. The ability to reduce everything to simple fundamental laws does not imply the ability to start from those laws and reconstruct the universe.

The constructionist hypothesis breaks down when confronted with the twin difficulties of scale and complexity. At each level of complexity entirely new properties appear. Psychology is not applied biology, nor is biology applied chemistry. We can now see that the whole becomes not merely more, but very different from the sum of its parts. The plausibility of strong emergence is questioned by some as contravening our usual understanding of physics.

Although strong emergence is logically possible, it is uncomfortably like magic. How does an irreducible but supervenient downward causal power arise, since by definition it cannot be due to the aggregation of the micro-level potentialities? Such causal powers would be quite unlike anything within our scientific ken.

This not only indicates how they will discomfort reasonable forms of materialism. Their mysteriousness will only heighten the traditional worry that emergence entails illegitimately getting something from nothing. Strong emergence can be criticized for being causally overdetermined. Now, M, as an emergent, must itself have an emergence base property, say P. Now we face a critical question: Why cannot P do all the work in explaining why any alleged effect of M occurred?

Moreover, this goes against the spirit of emergentism in any case: One escape route that a strong emergentist could take would be to deny downward causation. However, this would deny that emergent mental states must supervene on physical states, which in turn would deny physicalismand thus be unpalatable for some philosophers and physicists.

factors that determine the behaviour of stock market prices

Meanwhile, others have worked towards developing analytical evidence of strong emergence. InGu et al. The view that this is the goal of science rests in part on the rationale that such a theory would allow us to derive the behavior of all macroscopic concepts, at least in principle.

The evidence we have presented suggests that this view may be overly optimistic. The development of macroscopic laws from first principles may involve more than just systematic logic, and could require conjectures suggested by experiments, simulations or insight. Emergent structures are patterns that emerge via collective actions of many individual entities.

To explain such patterns, one might conclude, per Aristotle[2] that emergent structures are other than the sum of their parts on the assumption that the emergent order will not arise if the various parts simply interact independently of one another. However, there are those who disagree. In fact, some systems in nature are observed to exhibit emergence based upon the interactions of autonomous parts, and some others exhibit emergence that at least at present cannot be reduced in this way.

In particular renormalization are methods in theoretical physics which enables scientists to study systems that are not tractable as the combination of their parts. The properties of complexity and organization of any system are considered by Crutchfield to be subjective qualities determined by the observer.

Defining structure and detecting the emergence of complexity in nature are inherently subjective, though essential, scientific activities. Despite the difficulties, these problems can be analysed in terms of how model-building observers infer from measurements the computational capabilities embedded in non-linear processes. The discovery of structure in an environment depends more critically and subtly, though, on how those resources are organized.

The synergies associated with emergence are real and measurable, even if nobody is there to observe them. In religion, emergence grounds expressions of religious naturalism and syntheism in which a sense of the sacred is perceived in the workings of entirely naturalistic processes by which more complex forms arise or evolve from simpler forms.

An early argument —05 for the emergence of social formations, in part stemming from religion, can be found in Max Weber 's most famous work, The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. In art, emergence is used to explore the origins of novelty, creativity, and authorship.

They contend that artistic selfhood and meaning are emergent, relatively objective phenomena. Pearce has used emergence to describe the experience of works of art in relation to contemporary neuroscience. In international development, concepts of emergence have been used within a theory of social change termed SEED-SCALE to show how standard principles interact to bring forward socio-economic development fitted to cultural values, community economics, and natural environment local solutions emerging from the larger socio-econo-biosphere.

These principles can be implemented utilizing a sequence of standardized tasks that self-assemble in individually specific ways utilizing recursive evaluative criteria.

In postcolonial studies, the term "Emerging Literature" refers to a contemporary body of texts that is gaining momentum in the global literary landscape v. Emerging LiteraturesBern, Berlin, etc. By opposition, "emergent literature" is rather a concept used in the theory of literature. An emergent behavior or emergent property can appear when a number of simple entities agents operate in an environment, forming more complex behaviors as a collective.

If emergence happens over disparate size scales, then the reason is usually a causal relation across different scales. In other words, there is often a form of top-down feedback in systems with emergent properties.

Emergent behaviours can occur because of intricate causal relations across different scales and feedback, known as interconnectivity. The emergent property itself may be either very predictable or unpredictable and unprecedented, and represent a new level of the system's evolution. The complex behaviour or properties are not a property risks invest stock market philippines pdf any single such entity, nor can they easily be predicted or deduced from behaviour in the lower-level entities, and might in fact be irreducible to such behavior.

The shape and behaviour of a flock of birds [3] or school of fish are good examples of emergent properties.

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One reason why emergent behaviour is hard to predict is that the number of interactions between components of a system increases exponentially with the number of components, thus potentially allowing for many new and subtle types of behaviour to emerge. Emergence is often a product of particular patterns of interaction. Negative feedback introduces constraints that serve to fix structures or behaviours.

In contrast, positive feedback promotes change, allowing local variations to grow into global patterns. Another way in which interactions leads to emergent properties is dual-phase evolution.

This occurs where interactions are applied intermittently, leading to two phases: On the other hand, merely having a large number of interactions is not enough by itself to guarantee emergent behaviour; many of the interactions may be negligible or irrelevant, or may cancel each other out. In some cases, a large number of interactions can in fact work against the emergence of interesting behaviour, by creating a lot of "noise" to drown out any emerging "signal"; the emergent behaviour may need to define joint stock company colonies temporarily isolated from other interactions before it reaches enough critical mass to be self-supporting.

Thus it is not just the sheer number of connections between components which encourages emergence; it is also how these connections are organised. A hierarchical organisation is one example that can generate emergent behaviour a bureaucracy forex candlestick patterns cheat sheet pdf behave in a way quite different from that of the individual humans in that bureaucracy ; but perhaps more interestingly, emergent behaviour can factors that determine the behaviour of stock market prices arise from more decentralized organisational structures, such as a marketplace.

In some cases, the system has shopping hours boxing day adelaide reach a combined threshold of diversity, organisation, and connectivity before emergent behaviour appears.

Unintended consequences and side effects are closely related to emergent properties. Instead a component implements a behaviour whose side effect contributes to the global functionality [ Steels In other words, the global or macroscopic functionality of a system with "emergent functionality" is the sum of all "side effects", of all emergent properties and functionalities.

Systems with emergent properties or emergent structures may appear to defy entropic principles and the second law of thermodynamicsbecause they form and increase order despite the lack of command and central control.

This is possible because open systems can extract information and order out of the environment. Emergence helps to explain why the fallacy of division is a fallacy. Emergent structures can be found in many natural phenomena, from the physical to the biological domain. For example, the shape of weather phenomena such as hurricanes are emergent structures. The development and growth of complex, orderly crystals, as driven by the random motion of water molecules within a conducive natural environment, is another example of an emergent process, where randomness can give rise to complex and deeply attractive, orderly structures.

It is useful to distinguish three forms of emergent structures. A first-order emergent structure occurs as a result of shape interactions for example, hydrogen bonds in water molecules lead to surface tension. A second-order emergent structure involves shape interactions played out sequentially over time for example, changing atmospheric conditions as a snowflake falls to the ground build upon and alter its form.

Finally, a third-order emergent structure is a consequence of shape, time, and heritable instructions. For example, an organism's genetic code sets boundary conditions on the interaction of biological systems in space and time. In physicsemergence is used to describe a property, law, or phenomenon which occurs at macroscopic scales in space or time but not at microscopic scales, despite the fact that a macroscopic system can be viewed as a very large ensemble of microscopic systems.

An emergent property need not be more complicated than the underlying non-emergent properties which generate it. For instance, the laws of thermodynamics are remarkably simple, even if the laws which govern the interactions between component particles are complex. The term emergence in physics is thus used not to signify complexity, but rather to distinguish which laws and concepts apply to macroscopic scales, and which ones apply to microscopic scales.

Temperature is sometimes used as an example of an emergent macroscopic behaviour. In classical dynamics, a snapshot of the instantaneous momenta of a large number of particles at equilibrium is sufficient to find the average kinetic energy per degree of freedom which is proportional to the temperature. For a small number of particles the instantaneous momenta at a given time are not statistically sufficient to determine the temperature of the system. However, using the ergodic hypothesisthe temperature can still be obtained to arbitrary precision by work from home truck broker averaging the momenta over a long enough time.

Convection in a liquid or gas is another example of emergent macroscopic behaviour that makes sense only when considering differentials of temperature. In some theories of particle physics, even such basic structures as massspaceand time are viewed as emergent phenomena, arising from more fundamental concepts such as the Higgs boson or strings. In some interpretations of quantum mechanicsthe perception of a deterministic reality, in which all objects have a definite position, momentum, and so forth, is actually an emergent phenomenon, with the true state of matter being described instead by a wavefunction which need not have a single position or momentum.

Most of the laws of physics themselves as we experience them today appear to have emerged during the course of time making emergence the most fundamental principle in the universe [ according to whom?

Chemistry can in turn be viewed as an emergent property of the laws of physics. Biology including biological evolution can be viewed as an emergent property of the laws of chemistry. Similarly, psychology could be understood as scarface the world is yours money cheat engine emergent property of neurobiological laws.

Finally, free-market theories understand economy as an emergent feature of psychology. According to Laughlinfor many particle systems, nothing can be calculated exactly from the microscopic equations, and macroscopic systems are characterised by broken symmetry: As a result, these macroscopic systems are described in their own terminology, and have properties that do not depend on many microscopic details.

Laughlin is a pragmatic theoretical physicist: Life is a major source of complexity, and evolution is the major process behind the varying forms of life. In this view, evolution is swtor how to make money on the gtn process describing the growth of complexity in the natural world and in speaking of the emergence of complex living beings and online stock trading project using vb, this view refers therefore to processes of sudden changes in evolution.

Life is thought to have emerged in the early RNA world when RNA chains began to express the basic conditions necessary for natural selection to operate as conceived by Darwin: Fitness of an RNA replicator its per capita rate of increase would likely be a function of adaptive capacities that were intrinsic in the sense that they were determined by the nucleotide sequence and the availability of resources.

Competitive success among different replicators would have depended on the relative values of these adaptive capacities. Regarding causality in evolution Peter Corning observes:. Synergistic effects of various kinds have played a major causal role in the evolutionary process generally and in the evolution of cooperation and complexity in particular It is these functional effects that are ultimately responsible for the trans-generational continuities and changes in nature.

Per his definition of emergenceCorning also addresses emergence and evolution:. And this is equally true of the discrete barrier and lookback options effects produced by emergent systems. In other words, emergence itself Swarming is a well-known behaviour in many animal species from marching locusts beta stock market 1987 goldwing schooling fish to flocking birds.

factors that determine the behaviour of stock market prices

Instruire forexebug structures are a common strategy found in many animal groups: An example to consider in detail is an ant colony. The queen does not give direct orders and does not tell the ants what to do. Instead, each ant reacts to stimuli in the form of chemical scent from larvae, other ants, intruders, food and buildup of waste, and leaves behind a chemical trail, which, in turn, provides a stimulus to other ants.

Here each ant is an autonomous unit that reacts depending only on its local environment and the genetically encoded rules for its variety of ant.

Despite the lack of centralized decision making, ant colonies exhibit complex behavior and have even demonstrated the ability to solve geometric problems. For example, colonies routinely find the maximum distance from all colony entrances to dispose of dead bodies. It appears that environmental factors may play a role in influencing emergence. Research suggests induced emergence of the bee species Macrotera portalis. In this species, the bees emerge in a pattern consistent with rainfall.

Specifically, the pattern of emergence is consistent with southwestern deserts' late summer rains and lack of activity in the spring.

A broader example of emergent properties in biology is viewed in the biological organisation of life, ranging from the subatomic level to the entire biosphere. For example, individual atoms can be combined to form molecules such as polypeptide chains, which in turn fold and refold to form proteins, which in turn create even more complex structures.

These proteins, assuming their functional status from their spatial conformation, interact together and with other molecules to achieve higher biological functions and eventually create an organism. Another example is how cascade phenotype reactions, as detailed in chaos theoryarise from individual genes mutating respective positioning. Among the considered phenomena in the evolutionary account of life, as a continuous history, marked by stages at which fundamentally new forms have appeared - the origin of sapiens intelligence.

Groups of human beings, left free to each regulate themselves, tend to produce spontaneous orderrather than the meaningless chaos often feared. This has been observed in society at least since Chuang Tzu in ancient China.

A classic traffic roundabout is a good example, with cars moving in and out with such effective organization that some modern cities have begun replacing stoplights at problem intersections with traffic circles [4]and getting better results. Open-source software and Wiki projects form an even more compelling illustration. Emergent processes or behaviours can be seen in many other places, such as cities, cabal and market-dominant minority phenomena in economics, organizational phenomena in computer simulations and cellular automata.

Whenever you have a multitude of individuals interacting with one another, there often comes a moment when disorder gives way to order and something new emerges: The stock market or any market for that matter is an example of emergence on a grand scale. As a whole it precisely regulates the relative security prices of companies across the world, yet it has no leader; when no central planning is in place, there is no one entity which controls the workings of the entire market. Agents, or investors, have knowledge of only a limited number of companies within their portfolio, and must follow the regulatory rules of the market and analyse the transactions individually or in large groupings.

Trends and patterns emerge which are studied intensively by technical analysts. Emergence has been shown to occur in certain econophysics models of economics systems [31]. The World Wide Web is a popular example of a decentralized system exhibiting emergent properties. There is no central organization rationing the number of links, yet the number of links pointing to each page follows a power law in which a few pages are linked to many times and most pages are seldom linked to. A related property of the network of links in the World Wide Web is that almost any pair of pages can be connected to each other through a relatively short chain of links.

Although relatively well known now, this property was initially unexpected in an unregulated network. It is shared with many other types of networks called small-world networks.

Internet traffic can also exhibit some seemingly emergent properties.

In the congestion control mechanism, TCP flows can become globally synchronized at bottlenecks, simultaneously increasing and then decreasing throughput in coordination. Congestion, widely regarded as a nuisance, is possibly an emergent property of the spreading of bottlenecks across a network in high traffic flows which can be considered as a phase transition [see review of related research in Smithpp. Another important example of emergence in web-based systems is social bookmarking also called collaborative tagging.

In social bookmarking systems, users assign tags to resources shared with other users, which gives rise to a type of information organisation that emerges from this crowdsourcing process.

Recent research which analyzes empirically the complex dynamics of such systems [32] has shown that consensus on stable distributions and a simple form of shared vocabularies does indeed emerge, even in the absence of a central controlled vocabulary. Some believe that this could be because users who contribute tags all use the same language, and they share similar semantic structures underlying the choice of words.

The convergence in social tags may therefore be interpreted as the emergence of structures as people who have similar semantic interpretation collaboratively index online information, a process called semantic imitation. Emergent structures appear at many different levels of organization or as spontaneous order. Emergent self-organization appears frequently in cities where no planning or zoning entity predetermines the layout of the city.

Krugmanpp. Architects and Landscape Architects may not design all the pathways of a complex of buildings. Instead they might let usage patterns emerge and then place pavement where pathways have become worn, such as a desire path.

The on-course action and vehicle progression of the Urban Challenge could possibly be regarded as an example of cybernetic emergence.

Patterns of road use, indeterministic obstacle clearance times, etc.

The architectural school of Christopher Alexander takes a deeper approach to emergence attempting to rewrite the process of urban growth itself in order to affect form, establishing a new methodology of planning and design tied to traditional practices, an Emergent Urbanism.

Urban emergence has also been linked to theories of urban complexity Batty and urban evolution. Building ecology is a conceptual framework for understanding architecture and the built environment as the interface between the dynamically interdependent elements of buildings, their occupants, and the larger environment. Rather than viewing buildings as inanimate or static objects, building ecologist Hal Levin views them as interfaces or intersecting domains of living and non-living systems.

The strong relationship between atmospheric chemistry and indoor air quality and the chemical reactions occurring indoors. The chemicals may be nutrients, neutral or biocides for the microbial organisms.

The microbes produce chemicals that affect the building materials and occupant health and well being. Humans manipulate the ventilation, temperature and humidity to achieve comfort with the concomitant effects on the microbes that populate and evolve. Eric Bonabeau's attempt to define emergent phenomena is through traffic: On an individual level, each driver is trying to get somewhere and is following or breaking certain rules, some legal the speed limit and others societal or personal slow down to let another driver change into your lane.

But a traffic jam is a separate and distinct entity that emerges from those individual behaviors. Gridlock on a highway, for example, can travel backward for no apparent reason, even as the cars are moving forward.

Computational emergent phenomena have also been utilized in architectural design processes, for example for formal explorations and experiments in digital materiality.

Some artificially intelligent AI computer applications utilize emergent behavior for animation. One example is Boidswhich mimics the swarming behavior of birds. It has been argued that the structure and regularity of language grammaror at least language changeis an emergent phenomenon Hopper While each speaker merely tries to reach his or her own communicative goals, he or she uses language in a particular way.

If enough speakers behave in that way, language is changed Keller In a wider sense, the norms of a language, i. Within the field of group facilitation and organization development, there have been a number of new group processes that are designed to maximize emergence and self-organization, by offering a minimal set of effective initial conditions.

Examples of these processes include SEED-SCALEAppreciative InquiryFuture Searchthe World Cafe or Knowledge CafeOpen Space Technologyand others Holman, From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

For other uses, see Emergence disambiguation. Emergent disambiguationSpontaneous orderand Self-organization. Spontaneous order and Self-organization. Abstraction Abiogenesis Agent-based model Anthropic principle Big History Connectionism Consilience Constructal theory Dynamical system Deus ex machina Dual-phase evolution Emergenesis Emergent algorithm Emergent evolution Emergent gameplay Emergent organization Epiphenomenon Externality Generative sciences Innovation butterfly Interconnectedness Irreducible complexity Langton's ant Law of Complexity-Consciousness Mass action sociology Neural networks Noogenesis Organic Wholes of G.

Moore Polytely Society of Mind theory Structuralism Superorganism Swarm intelligence System of systems Teleology Synergetics Fuller Synergetics Haken. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy Spring Edition. A Venerable Concept in Search of a Theory" PDFComplexity7 6: The Emergence of Life: From Chemical Origins to Synthetic Biology. Core ideas and issues". Explicit use of et al. The edge of reductionism". A version of the original quote from address at the Conference on Cosmic Design, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.

Weber and the chemistry of capitalism'. Sociological Theory, vol 28, no. Complexity, Biosemiotics and the Evolution of Culture. Rethinking Self-Organization in Art, Literature, and Nature. Art in the Age of Emergence. Compact Macromodels of the World System GrowthMoscow: Quarterly Review of Biology. Evolutionary Transitions in Fitness and Individuality. Annals of the Entomological Society of America.

Noogenesis and Theory of Intellect. How understanding flocks, schools, and colonies can make us better at communicating, decision making, and getting things done. Dollar Markets III - Phase Transition". Harvard Business Review [serial online].

Business Source Complete, Ipswich, MA. Accessed February 1, Domus Argeniapp. Subfields of and scientists involved in cybernetics. Polycontexturality Second-order cybernetics Catastrophe theory Connectionism Control theory Decision theory Information theory Semiotics Synergetics Biological cybernetics Biosemiotics Biomedical cybernetics Biorobotics Computational neuroscience Homeostasis Management cybernetics Medical cybernetics Neurocybernetics Sociocybernetics Emergence Artificial intelligence.

Maleyka Abbaszadeh Igor Aleksander William Ross Ashby Gregory Bateson Anthony Stafford Beer Natalia Bekhtereva Claude Bernard Ludwig von Bertalanffy Valentin Braitenberg Gordon S. Katherine Hayles Francis Heylighen Erich von Holst Cliff Joslyn Stuart Kauffman Sergei P. Warfield William Grey Walter Kevin Warwick Norbert Wiener Anthony Wilden. Retrieved from " https: Emergence Chaos theory Concepts in epistemology Concepts in metaphysics Consciousness—matter dualism Metaphysics of mind Metaphysics of science Complex systems theory Pattern formation.

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